In a surprising flip, the prediction market now prices a 51% chance of Kamala Harris winning the United States presidential race against Donald Trump, with an impressive rally favoring the Democrat candidate.
Notably, Polymarket shows Kamala Harris moving from a 6% victory chance to a dominating position in less than a month. The aggressive takeover from the Democrat candidate surprised Trump supporters, who previously saw a 72% leadership by the Republican representative.
As of this writing, the prediction market prices a 46% chance of Donald Trump winning 2024’s presidential election. Interestingly, over $71.53 million bets were placed on Trump’s speculation, while Kamala Harris’s bet was worth $60.55 million.
Overall, a $571.22 million volume constitutes the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” bet on Polymarket. This suggests a solid market prediction with relevant financial interest and accuracy, but the scenario could change at any moment.
Presidential Election Winner 2024 bet on prediction market. Source: Polymarket
How does Polymarket’s prediction market work?
Prediction markets have been praised as more accurate sources of future events than legacy polls and surveys. Primarily due to the “survey” participants having a vested financial interest in “being right.”
In particular, the cryptocurrency market and the use of cryptocurrencies to place bets and receive rewards have opened the doors for traders worldwide to profit from accurate predictions and asymmetries, increasing the value and accuracy of these markets as the volume and accessibility grew.
Polymarket is one of the leading prediction markets, built on the Polygon (MATIC) network and using Circle USD (USDC). The regulated stablecoin is the platform’s base currency to place bets and collect rewards.
Essentially, someone who believes Kamala Harris has a better chance than 51% of winning the 2024 presidential election can profit from purchasing a share of this prediction, worth $0.51. If Harris wins, everyone with a “win” bet will receive $1 per share, profiting $0.49 per share.
As things develop, the odds of a win are expected to change, and the prediction market is now closely watching.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
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