Kamala Harris and Donald Trump‘s debate on September 10 sent waves in the finance landscape, including prediction markets. The overall perception is that Harris did better than Trump, and Polymarket‘s numbers validate this thesis.
As a context, Finbold previously reported that Donald Trump opened a broader advantage over Kamala Harris in prediction markets.
According to Polymarket‘s largest bet, Trump had a 53% winning chance between September 4 and 6. Meanwhile, Harris’s chances of victory dropped to as low as 45% in the same period—a reality that has now changed.
On September 11, Finbold gathered updated data from the popular prediction market showing an equal 49% chance for both candidates. This could be a direct impact of the recent presidential debate, which the Democratic Party representative mostly dominated.
Presidential forecast. Source: Polymarket
How Polymarket’s prediction market works?
Essentially, Polymarket‘s data results from a free trading market used by traders worldwide who place their bets by buying shares. Each winning share will pay one dollar in USDC, and traders can purchase them at a floating exchange rate.
As of this writing, Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s “yes” bet cost nearly $0.49, translating to the prediction market’s winning chance. If any of them win the election, everyone with “yes” shares will profit $0.51 per share.
Interestingly, this gives very good odds for traders betting on any of the two candidates.
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris presidential debate
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump clashed in their first presidential debate on Tuesday night. The 90-minute exchange covered a wide range of issues and was marked by sharp attacks from both sides.
Harris aggressively challenged Trump on his legal troubles and pandemic response. Trump focused on inflation and immigration, areas where the current administration faces criticism. The debate took an unusual turn when Trump made unsubstantiated claims about migrants eating pets in Ohio.
Abortion rights, economic policies, and global conflicts emerged as key topics of contention. Harris portrayed herself as a middle-class advocate, while Trump criticized her policies and questioned her originality. Both candidates offered limited solutions to international issues like Gaza and Ukraine.
The debate also touched on race, crime statistics, and election integrity, reflecting deep partisan divides. Post-debate, pop star Taylor Swift endorsed the Democratic ticket, potentially boosting Harris’s campaign. Analysts are now assessing the debate’s impact on the presidential race while prediction markets leave their mark.
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