Bitcoin (BTC) and gold have been expected to experience massive upsides through most of 2024 due to numerous financial, technical, and political reasons.
Indeed, by October 4, both assets had been performing well, with gold trading near its all-time highs (ATH) and BTC, despite being well below its peak, substantially in the green year-to-date (YTD).
Experts at the banking giant JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM), however, believe that both the commodity and the cryptocurrency have significantly more room to grow in the coming month.
To be precise, both assets are expected to benefit from ongoing global and national events in the U.S., with some high geopolitical tensions identified as one of the main drivers.
How global tensions might drive gold and Bitcoin up
In fact, gold has already reaffirmed its position as a safe haven asset as it sharply rallied in the wake of the Iranian missile strike executed against Israel on October 1.
The attack was ordered in retaliation for the assassinations of the Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and multiple officers of the Islamic Republic’s armed forces, as well as the bombings and incursions in Palestine and Lebanon.
The event saw the precious metal climb from about $2,628 on September 30 to around $2,670 near the time the rockets were nearing their targets in Israel.
Gold 5-day price chart. Source: TradingView
Simultaneously, the attack cast doubt on Bitcoin’s role as a safe haven investment as the cryptocurrency collapsed in value from approximately $64,000 to under $61,000 near the same time.
BTC 5-day price chart. Source: Finbold
Why the November elections could send Bitcoin to new all-time highs
Nonetheless, JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou considers domestic events as the bigger potential drivers of a BTC rally, than any international crises stemming from the wars in the Levant and Ukraine.
Specifically, the banking giant’s analyst believes that the markets have yet to pierce in a Trump victory in November. Should he truly get re-elected, a substantial BTC surge is likely given the billionaire’s popularity in the cryptocurrency community and his Bitcoin-friendly stance, among other considerations.
Gold and other assets, JPMorgan concluded, could also benefit from a Republican victory, assuming a scenario similar to 2016 plays out as, at the time, there was a substantial uptrend across the board.
Why there may be no gold or Bitcoin rally
Still, much like a Trump victory is not certain, global events could throw a wrench in the hopes of a gold or Bitcoin rally.
In some ways, BTC is in greater danger of a spoiled bull cycle should it again react to major news in a fashion similar to the October 1 drop. Its next chance to make or break the safe-haven reputation may come sooner rather than later.
At press time on October 4, there is a general expectation that Israel will execute a major retaliatory attack against Iran, with some of the more dire predictions forecasting strikes against the Islamic Republic’s oil or nuclear facilities.
Such an event would lead to a wider regional war, provided Iran follows through on its previous warnings. It could also jeopardize the oil supply from Persian Gulf states, despite their recent commitment to neutrality in such an eventuality.
Additionally, it is worth noting that a Donald Trump reelection is not certain by any means and that cryptocurrency investors are unlikely to react well to a Kamala Harris victory, despite her efforts to soften the Democratic Party’s stance about digital assets.
Though gold appears a safer bet for an imminent rally, the fact the commodity has been trading near its all-time highs for months gives some cause to question whether there is much room for growth ahead despite many analysts forecasting a rally to $3,000 either by the end of 2024, or at the start of 2025.
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