For anyone who purchased the token while it was trading near its multi-year center of gravity near $0.50, XRP became a major portfolio winner in late 2024. Specifically, after spending most of the bull market around the 50-cent mark, the cryptocurrency soared starting in early November and found itself at a new all-time high (ATH) near $3.31 on January 17, 2025.
The rise ensured that investors who purchased as little as $1,000 worth of the token as late as November 1 would have, just under a month ago, had $6,490.19.
Still, XRP’s performance has since proved less stellar, and though it remains 13.69% in the green year-to-date (YTD) with a February 10 price of $2.41, the exact same investment would be worth a substantially lower $4,725.49.
XRP 6-month price chart. Source: Finbold
Why XRP might be headed for a 52% crash
The situation gave rise to speculation on where XRP might go next and if it could find even higher highs in the long-anticipated ‘altseason.’
A cryptocurrency trader known as Harold_123 on TradingView shared his assessment earlier in February, thus perhaps shocking some investors with a forecast that the token might collapse as much as 52% in the coming weeks.
Given the press time XRP price of $2.41, such a downside would mean that the cryptocurrency might trade as low as $1.16 in the near term.
XRP price forecast. Source: Harold_123 & TradingView
The prediction, however, also provides a silver lining. Specifically, it is based on the similarities between the token’s late 2024 and early 2025 rally and its last complete bull cycle, enjoyed in 2017.
The trader noted that the rally in both cases came after a protracted ‘triangular consolidation’ followed by a breakout. Should the similarities persist, XRP might face the aforementioned correction in the near term. Again, looking at the historical performance, such a collapse would not signal the final crash of the cycle.
Instead, the trader noted that after spending some time at a depressed price, the token is likely to head to new highs, with one speculative value seeing it soar to $26, per the established Fibonacci values.
Could XRP enjoy an even greater rally in 2025?
The forecast is partially in line with other analysts’ predictions. For example, Ali Martinez made an X post in early December, opining that $8.40 is a high XRP is likely aiming for but that there is also a compelling case for a surge all the way to $48.12.
Still, it is worth pointing out that the predictions so far have been based on differing forms of technical analysis, an assumption the cryptocurrency will probably perform comparably to its past cycles, and the momentum driven by Gary Gensler’s resignation from the SEC.
XRP’s more recent performance may have invalidated some of the hopes and analyses, while the regulatory-driven momentum is also, at press time, dubious: though Gensler’s resignation confirmation sent the token soaring, the cryptocurrency is 22% below where it stood when he actually vacated his role as the SEC Chair on January 20.
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