Bitcoin (BTC) lost a four-month price range after breaking down from $60,000, trading as low as $53,540. Now, a prominent cryptocurrency analyst believes BTC can revisit its lows and maybe drop even further in a bearish context.
CrypNuevo shared this analysis in his “Sunday Update” as a thread on X, pointing to key technical indicators. In the analyst’s words, “The next key level to the downside is exactly $51.7k.”
Essentially, the $51,700 price level matches with leverage liquidation pools formed after the wick down to $53,540. Moreover, it matches the 50-week exponential moving average, which is a solid price and trend indicator.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView / CrypNuevo
Bitcoin wick-filling strategy
The analyst usually refers to candlestick wicks in his analyses as imbalances indicators. Historically, Bitcoin tends to fix these imbalances, revisiting 50% or 100% of the wicks before confirming reversals.
CrypNuevo often uses this “wick-filling strategy” with a remarkable accuracy ratio, and this time, it should not be different. According to the analyst, BTC will probably retrace to the level between $55,200 and $53,540, filling the wick.
However, bearish macroeconomic data with the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) could drive Bitcoin even lower, as reported.
“We could then see first a drop to fill at least the 50% of the wick. It’s likely to see a bounce from the wick fill, but if we drop below the 100% of the wick level, then $51.7k should hold.”
– CrypNuevo
BTC resistance to the upside
On the other hand, CrypNuevo believes that lower-than-expected CPI data on Thursday can fuel a surge back to $60,000. The trader sees this as strong price resistance, likely not to be broken on the first try.
“Now, we can notice that there are some liquidations forming to the upside, too. But as long as we don’t recover $60k (previous range lows, which now can be a strong resistance), it’s not a target for me. Level by level.”
– CrypNuevo
Bitcoin macroeconomic analysis. Source: CrypNuevo
Breaking out the $60,000 resistance would put Bitcoin back to the four-month range, making this recent crash a deviation. Finbold also highlighted this as a key level to watch for next week while favoring a downside movement.
Investors must remain cautious and avoid too much exposure with leverage trades as things develop in July.
Disclaimer: The content on this site should not be considered investment advice. Investing is speculative. When investing, your capital is at risk.
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