Solana (SOL) has struggled to sustain its bullish momentum, dropping over 40% in the past month. The decline continued with an additional 1.2% loss in a day, bringing its price down to $137 at press time—its lowest level since November 2024.
The latest sell-off comes amid the collapse of Solana-based meme coins, particularly LIBRA, along with growing concerns over a major token unlock involving 11 million SOL.
Solana one-day price chart. Source: Finbold
At the same time, network activity on Solana has seen a significant decline, further deepening the bearish sentiment.
Amid this uncertainty, Finbold analyzed market data and consulted OpenAI’s advanced ChatGPT-4o model to provide an updated outlook on Solana’s trajectory leading up to March.
ChatGPT sets Solana price for March 2025
When prompted, ChatGPT analyzed Solana’s performance, identifying the key factors behind its downturn and the challenges it faces in staging a recovery.
The AI model identified the burst of the memecoin bubble as one of the major reasons behind Solana’s recent losses. Many speculative tokens on the Solana network experienced sharp declines after initial hype-driven rallies, with LIBRA’s collapse amplifying investor concerns. The resulting liquidity drain has weighed heavily on SOL’s price action.
Major factors driving Solana price. Source: ChatGPT/Finbold
Solana’s on-chain activity has also taken a hit. Daily transactions on the network dropped to just 11,871 on February 26, a steep decline from 71,738 on January 23.
Moreover, the Total Value Locked (TVL) on Solana’s DeFi ecosystem, which peaked at $12 billion in January, has now dropped to $7.13 billion—a 41% decline in just over a month, according to the data from DefiLlama.
The AI model also highlighted Solana’s upcoming 15 million SOL token unlock—valued at $7 billion—as a looming risk. If demand fails to absorb the additional supply, SOL could face further downward pressure, prolonging its recovery.
This unlock data, however, is outdated, evidencing some of the limitations of using ChatGPT for thoughtful analyses.
As Finbold reported, Solana’s vesting contracts will unlock 11.16 million SOL on March 1, valued at over $1.53 billion at the current price of $137. This unlock stems from tokens previously acquired and later sold by the now-defunct exchange FTX as part of its bankruptcy proceedings.
While the potential approval of spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could act as a catalyst, ChatGPT noted that the likelihood of near-term approval remains low due to regulatory uncertainty. Without institutional inflows, SOL could struggle to regain strong upward momentum.
ChatGPT sets Solana’s price target for March 2025
Based on these factors, ChatGPT projects $180 to $220 as a reasonable price range for Solana by March 2025.
In a base case scenario, the AI model expects SOL to trade between $180 and $220, supported by a potential rebound in DeFi activity and improved market sentiment.
ChatGPT sets Solana price target. Source: ChatGPT/Finbold
The forecast still suggests a limited upside from current levels, as Solana still faces macro and ecosystem-specific challenges.
However, without fresh catalysts, SOL’s recovery could remain sluggish. In a bearish case, if on-chain activity continues to decline, inflationary pressures persist, and investor sentiment remains weak, Solana could see a further downside toward $120 before a rebound.
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