Up to this point, 2024 has been rather kind in terms of returns — not to mention the start of the cryptocurrency bull run and the S&P 500 at all-time highs (ATHs), but it is simply the nature of the markets to wax and wane. No uptrend or downtrend lasts forever — and being able to correctly identify that shift is a skill that can net immense profit — or prevent huge losses.
It comes as little surprise that investors tend to turn to the experts when it comes to this topic. Although most market analysts are optimistic, one of the most notable dissenting voices is Robert Kiyosaki — author of the bestselling personal finance book ‘Rich Dad Poor Dad’.
A noted cryptocurrency and precious metal bull, Kiyosaki has had a slight tone of change recently — now, he expects to see a market-wide crash on a global scale.
Robert Kiyosaki turns bearish — but still optimistic on gold and BTC
Reflecting on recent events, Kiyosaki claimed that the crash had already started — citing Europe, China, and the United States as regions facing downturns in a December 23 post made on social media platform X.
He urged investors to be smart with their money and keep their jobs — adding that crashes are the best time to get richer for many people. While the author and investor did not reflect on the causes of the crash, in a more far-reaching manner, he pinned the blame on educators — asking ‘What did school teach you about money?’
However, this was Kiyosaki’s most bold and notable prediction: ‘Regardless of which way the economy goes, gold, silver, and Bitcoin hold their value’.
While gold and silver are proven hedges, BTC has shown an increasing correlation with the performance of traditional assets as the years go by — and there are more than enough crashes in recent memory to dispute Kiyosaki’s thesis that Bitcoin holds its value no matter what.
BTC price historical chart. Source: Finbold
What’s more, a crash could easily lead to large-scale BTC liquidation — with investors locking in profits and subsequently redirecting them to now-cheap equities.
Is Kiyosaki right about an upcoming crash?
Finally, it should be noted that the old analogy of a broken clock being right twice a day very much applies in this instance. Kiyosaki has often been accused of leveraging scaremongering tactics — he has a long history of ‘calling’ market crashes that simply fail to materialize.
The S&P 500 price chart with Rober Kiyosaki’s crash predictions up to 2021. Source: @fintwit_news.
Predicting market tops and subsequent reversals is such a tall order that no one has been able to do it reliably and on a consistent basis. Even the investors who have the best track record in terms of predictions tend to overshoot — or as a common joke goes, they’ve predicted 20 out of the last 4 crashes.
That’s not to say that there isn’t value in Kiyosaki’s line of reasoning — allocating a certain portion of holdings to defensive stocks, hedges like gold and silver, and even diversifying into digital assets like Bitcoin can serve to reduce risk — provided that it is done sensibly.
Disclaimer: The featured image in this article is for illustrative purposes only and may not accurately reflect the true likeness of the individuals depicted.
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