If Bitcoin (BTC) replicates past cycle performances, the asset could trade at $100,000 or higher in December. Notably, the cryptocurrency market remains on edge, anticipating Bitcoin’s push to the six-figure valuation amid the ongoing post-election rally.
Historically, Bitcoin has shown a tendency to rally in December following the United States presidential election years. Specifically, during the last two such cycles, the cryptocurrency posted significant December gains of 30% and 46%.
For 2024, on-chain cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has suggested that history might repeat itself, potentially propelling Bitcoin to trade between $125,000 and $140,000 in December, he said in an X post on November 30.
Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: Ali_charts
Indeed, on-chain metrics hint at the possibility of Bitcoin rising higher in the coming days. Data shared by Martinez indicates that over 55,000 Bitcoins (worth approximately $5.34 billion) have been withdrawn from exchanges in the past 72 hours.
Bitcoin balance on exchanges. Source: Glassnode/Ali_charts
These movements point to the possibility of reduced selling pressure and increased long-term holding. Such outflows have historically preceded price rallies as they lead to a supply squeeze, which can boost Bitcoin’s ongoing momentum amid sustained demand for the digital currency.
Bitcoin’s need for a decisive breakout
On the flip side, crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted Bitcoin’s struggle to break above a one-week lower-high trendline, which is a critical resistance level.
In this case, a daily close above $97,000 could propel BTC toward $100,000, but failure to do so risks further rejection and potential moves to lower levels. The analyst noted that the asset needs to make a decisive breakout to alleviate any fears of a possible correction below $90,000.
Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView
It’s worth noting that Bitcoin has faltered in its push to claim the $100,000 level—a bullish move that gained traction following Donald Trump’s election. Bitcoin narrowly missed the $100,000 mark last week before experiencing a recent pullback.
The drop has been welcomed by some quarters, as it alleviates fears of the asset being overbought.
At the same time, the maiden digital asset might face further volatility in the short term, considering that such movements are typical towards the end of the month. Additionally, the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is likely to impact the asset’s price in December.
Bitcoin price analysis
As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $96,682, having declined by about 1.6% in the past 24 hours. In the weekly timeframe, BTC is down by over 2%.
Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold
Despite the pullback, Bitcoin’s price remains above the 50-day ($77,855) and 200-day simple moving average ($66,476), signaling sustained upward trends central to the asset edging closer to the $100,000 level.
However, investors awaiting further upward movement should note that Bitcoin’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing overbought territory.
Featured image via Shutterstock
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