Just three weeks ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump continues to widen his lead over Democratic candidate and incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris.
Although average national polls see Harris having a slight 2.4% advantage over Trump per FiveThirtyEight, prediction markets — both international and domestic, are projecting higher odds that the media mogul and billionaire will secure a second term.
National poll averages as of October 15. Source: FiveThirtyEight
Trump’s rise in prediction markets
Just two weeks ago, on October 4, international prediction market Polymarket put the odds of another Trump presidency at 50% — with a slight 1% edge over the opposing candidate. At this point, an unexpectedly strong showing from Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, in the vice-presidential debate saw a 0.4% shift in the Republican candidate’s favor.
Per the platform, those odds have steadily been rising — by October 7, the odds were set at 50.8% in favor of Trump and 48.4% in favor of Harris. A day later, the gap had widened even further — up to a 7.2% lead for Trump following a highly-criticized Harris interview on 60 Minutes.
At press time, Polymarket puts the odds of a Trump victory at 59.5%, a significant 19.2% lead over Harris’ 40.3% odds.
Election odds as of October 16. Source: Polymarket
In tandem with this, Kalshi, a domestic platform that restarted operations after a successful appeal against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on October 2, currently puts the odds at 57% in favor of Trump.
Election odds as of October 16. Source: Kalshi
Prediction markets likely to remain volatile
In spite of the fact that prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have gained popularity as a substitute for traditional polls, investors and traders should keep in mind that they might not be a reliable predictor of election outcomes.
While these platforms can and do provide a look at sentiment, that sentiment is far from representative on a wide scale — the demographics of those who engage in this type of betting are likely highly skewed.
One should also keep in mind that these odds are subject to sudden, dramatic changes owing to the news cycle — after the first failed attempt on the former President’s life, his chances of victory surged from 60% to 70% per Polymarket.
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