Days after regaining popularity over his Democratic opponent in the presidential race, former United States president and Republican nominee Donald Trump has continued to put more distance between himself and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in prediction markets.
As it happens, the odds of Trump winning the elections have recently increased to 53.3%, whereas Harris’s have declined further to 46.1%, which means that Trump is currently ahead by 7.2% in prediction markets, as per the latest Polymarket data retrieved on October 8.
Trump vs. Harris in prediction markets. Source: Polymarket
Trump vs. Harris in prediction markets
Indeed, the cryptocurrency-based predictions platform taking bets in the form of the dollar-pegged USDC stablecoin suggests Trump’s increasing advantage and has reflected the sentiment around key developments that might impact the election outcome, as evident after the July assassination attempt.
As a reminder, his popularity in Polymarket skyrocketed from 60% to 70% in a matter of hours after the Pennsylvania rally shooting, although later declining to 46% as Harris stepped in to replace the current U.S. President Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee.
That said, several weeks later, Trump recovered popularity against his rival, but Harris managed to reduce it and even the odds by mid-September, with both candidates demonstrating an equal 49% chance of victory. More recently, the Republican nominee returned to the lead and continued to strengthen it.
Changing odds at presidential election winner. Source: Polymarket
Attempts to manipulate predictions markets
Meanwhile, allegations have appeared claiming there have been unsuccessful attempts to manipulate the derivative bets between the two candidates on the Polymarket platform, particularly several days after Trump’s reestablished domination in early September, as Finbold reported on September 7.
Specifically, online investigator Dumpster DAO said that the manipulation attempt involved using $9 million worth of USDC to purchase the ‘yes’ shares for Harris and ‘no’ shares for Trump, seeking to artificially inflate the Vice President’s numbers and profit from it.
All things considered, if the prediction markets are any indicator of the general mood regarding the upcoming November elections, Donald Trump is currently in the lead over Kamala Harris. However, trends can easily change, so doing one’s own research is critical before making any significant bets.
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