According to a senior commodity analyst, Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility puts it behind gold and the U.S. dollar in some investment perspectives. Meanwhile, BTC may crash harder than the stock market during a recession.
Mike McGlone, senior commodity analyst for Bloomberg, spoke about the market’s volatility in a panel at Bitcoinday Miami this week. On that occasion, McGlone highlighted how Tether’s dollar stablecoin (USDT) trades twice as much as Bitcoin on a usual day.
“Right now, I can have access to the U.S. dollar any place in the world from my phone [with] Tether. Tether is the number one trading token. It’s the number one trading crypto. It doubles the value in a typical day over Bitcoin. It’s the dollar. The whole world has gone to the dollar. Why? Because it’s the least worst of all fiat currencies.”
Mike McGlone
Notably, the senior analyst is enthusiastic about Bitcoin as a hedge commodity that companies will be exposed to. However, he is also skeptical about the leading cryptocurrency‘s other properties, including its competitive advantages against other commodities and currencies.
Bitcoin would crash harder than stocks in a recession
Mike McGlone played an antagonist role on the thematic panel, raising concerns about Bitcoin as an investment asset. He mentioned that stablecoin issuers back their U.S. dollar peg with treasury bonds, suggesting a low-volatility preference.
Moreover, the commodity expert highlighted gold as the preferred option for central banks trying to hedge their Treasuries. To illustrate these claims, Mike McGlone explained that stocks are about to crash amid an expected recession against key finance indicators, but Bitcoin will suffer more.
“So, please be concerned about beta [of volatility]. (…) $55 trillion is the total capitalization of the U.S. stock market. It’s two times GDP. That’s the most since 1937. That’s how expensive everything is right now. Bitcoin trades three times the volatility of the stock market on a normal basis. So, when—I didn’t say if—the stock market has a normal correction versus GDP, Bitcoin is more likely to go down initially. Gold is more likely to go up.”
Mike McGlone
Tether’s USDT trading volume against Bitcoin
Interestingly, Finbold retrieved data from Santiment, regarding Mike McGlone’s claims on the dollar being the most traded cryptocurrency and its relation to Bitcoin’s trading volume.
As of this writing, the USDT trading volume was at $41.76 billion, while Bitcoin’s was at $14.59 billion. This makes a 2.86:1 ratio of Tether’s U.S. dollar trading volume against BTC.
BTC vs. USDT trading volume. Source: Santiment / Finbold (Vini Barbosa)
In conclusion, despite being enthusiastic about Bitcoin’s long-term forecasts, Mike McGlone remains skeptical about its capacities as a solid investment asset class or recession hedge. In his opinion, volatility plays an important role. Furthermore, the U.S. dollar and gold are superior assets for different reasons.
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